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We Probably Need A Second Opinion on Coronavirus

Kevin Battle
April 23, 2020 - 1:57 pm

If a doctor told you that they wanted to remove your lung because you ‘probably’ had cancer - would you agree to the surgery?  Not likely.  You would want to have tests performed.  You would want definitive proof before making that tough decision.  ‘Probability’ would only come into play as  you were evaluating your chance of survival or recovery AFTER test results were provided.

Gambling is based on probabilities.  Science is as well, but in very precise terms for experiments & circumstances.

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is now including ‘subjective’ probability into its official tallies regarding coronavirus - before test results are provided.

This ‘New Math’ could turn ‘fuzzy’ fast.  It could hinder regions and counties in Pennsylvania from reaching the coveted ‘green phase’ of Governor Wolf’s recently unveiled three-phase plan for reopening the businesses, churches, and schools that he ordered closed.

I had concerns & fears but I agreed with the governor’s controversial decision to temporarily close aspects of our lives and economy.  It was a strong, preemptive move as we faced a potential, predicted tidal wave of illness and death.  Those predictions were based on probabilities.  Remember, coronavirus is a disease that we knew little about, humans had never encountered, and vaccines or therapies were not available.  Governor Wolf’s decisive action in mid-March preceded those of New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and even SPAIN which was getting hammered by the invisible enemy at the time.

Larry Richert and I are honored to welcome Governor Wolf as a guest of our show every other Tuesday.  I love asking him real questions.  He always answers.  It is a great, respectful outreach for everyone involved: The Governor.  Me.  And, you!

But now - the national process is dragging on.  What once I feared, I am now beginning to believe.  The ‘shut downs’ (or lack thereof) across the country are seemingly being used as political tools, power grabs, or chances to remake the world.  House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina said that the pandemic gives Democrats "a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision."  Regardless of political party - I am not officially affiliated with any - comments like that should make every American ill.

Don’t get me wrong: some federal stimulus was necessary.  But, even more money will soon be pulled from the pockets of taxpayers and undoubtably handed out with new restrictions to every day life.  More red tape will be forced upon us by central planners.  We’ve already been promised that life will never be the same.

Will life every get close to being normal?  Will Pennsylvanians ever see the ‘Green’ phase of the governor’s plan?  Forgive me for wondering. 

Pennsylvania Secretary of Health, Dr. Rachel Levine, announced this week that officials are now counting ‘probable’ cases of covid-19 along with the confirmed cases.  Probable cases are those of individuals that displayed symptoms of the illness but did not have confirmation of it.  Did I have the flu or was I hungover?  Is my ankle sprained or broken?  Do I have strep or just a sore throat?  Is this a tumor or is it a cyst?  We all would likely want more details.

The state’s practice will simply blur the numbers and potentially extend ‘stay at home’ orders.  It will artificially and arbitrarily inflate the numbers making it more difficult to reach the desired benchmarks needed to lift orders and advance recovery.  ‘Probable totals’ will definitely extend the trampling of our rights.

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