Winter To Go Out With A Bang

Accumulating Snow On The First Day Of Spring

Robert Suhr
March 19, 2018 - 8:07 pm

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PITTSBURGH (Newsradio 1020 KDKA) - Don't say I didn't warn you.

If this were sports, I'd say it's the bottom of the 9th, and winter has runners on second and third while down a run to Spring. 

Translation: Winter has nothing to lose.

Winter will certainly go out with a bang Tuesday and Wednesday with a snowstorm that, just 48 hours ago looked anything but.

But now...WOAH DIFFERENCES...

That's the Pittsburgh National Weather Service Office...who also issues a "worst case" accumulation map which has Pittsburgh getting dumped on with around a foot...yes I said foot...as in 12 inches...of snow.

While that is unlikely (mainly because of solar radiation and ground temperatures) it's not out of the question.

In fact, some outlets firmly believe some of the computer models that blast the area...

Even to our northwest, other meteorologists are calling for Pittsburgh to get plastered...

Look, I'm a meteorologist, I know forecasting snow is hard in the middle of winter, let alone at the end of it...there is ALOT that can go wrong with this forecast, it's extremely complex and for snow lovers, a whole lot can go wrong that will complicate the forecast.

One of the "models" I like to look at, especially when we're this close to the event is the SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast) plumes. These average 27 different model runs and spit out an average. 

As of this writing at 8pm, the model has run three times today, averaging the following amounts...

3z - 5.7 inches (with a max of 12" and a min of 0")

9z - 7.29 inches (with a max of 16.5" and a min of 0.75")

15z - 6.9 inches (with a max of 13" and a min of 1.3)

If I average the AVERAGES we get a total of 6.63"

That's the number I like...I think the Metro Pittsburgh area will total around 6 inches when all is said and done.

The worst of the snow is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, that's when we can expect the bulk of the accumulations to happen. Again, it'll be much harder for snow to accumulate during the day because of the time of year the snow is falling.

If you're wondering about late March snowstorms, here's your answer...

The National Weather Service in State College has even upped their totals a bit...

We still have about 24 hours until the bulk of the snow starts to fall, so again things can change.

But I think this sums things up...

 

The views expressed in this story do not necessarily reflect the views of KDKA Radio or Entercom Communications.